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Abstract:
The evolution of the debris field generated by an on-orbit explosion or collision fragmentation event is of critical concern to space operators and SSA organizations. Following AGI's recent development of the "Debris Risk Evolution And Dispersal" (DREAD) analysis tool, the authors apply that tool to simulate the effects of collision and explosion events. DREAD modeling of the Iridium/Cosmos collision of 2009 is compared with SSN-observed fragments to verify that the DREAD predictions match well with empirical observations. Additional collision and explosion events are modeled by DREAD to characterize the resulting 3D fragmentation cloud evolution and subsequent risk to all active satellites. Significantly, the DREAD tool facilitates the rapid evaluation of fragmentation down-stream collision risk to active satellites as an SSA tool. Additional speed improvements and parallelization techniques to DREAD are also explored.
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Citation:
Oltrogge, D.L. and Vallado, D.A., “Application of New Debris Risk Evolution And Dissipation (DREAD) Tool to Characterize Post-Fragmentation Risk,” 2017 Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Stevenson WA, AAS 17-600, 22 August 2017, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220424T105827/Paper/AAS%2017-600_PROOF.pdf
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