The myths and realities of CubeSat collision risk

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Id: 266

Type: Presentation

Published: 04/23/2016

Event: CubeSat Workshop 2016

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Abstract:

CubeSats are often perceived as posing either negligible or disproportionate collision risk in Low Earth Orbit, yet both views obscure the underlying realities of orbital congestion and debris dynamics. This work examines common myths surrounding CubeSat collision risk by comparing CubeSat populations, physical characteristics, and operational practices with those of larger satellites. Using public catalogs, debris population models, and volumetric encounter analysis, the study demonstrates that collision probability is driven by combined hard-body radius and orbital environment rather than spacecraft size alone. The analysis shows that CubeSats constitute a small fraction of tracked objects but still contribute to collision risk and operational impingement on other operators, particularly in dense orbital regimes. Results highlight that small debris below current tracking thresholds represents a significant hazard and that large constellations experience high cumulative collision probability over decadal timescales if unmitigated. The work emphasizes that shortening post-mission orbital lifetimes and adhering to best practices are critical debris mitigation measures. The study concludes that improving data sharing, adopting standardized operational norms, and proactive regulation are essential to managing CubeSat collision risk and preserving long-term orbital sustainability.

Oltrogge, D.L., “The Myths and Realities of CubeSat Collision Risk,” 2016 Spring CubeSat Developer’s Workshop, California Polytechnic University, 23 April 2016, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220424T094000/Presentation/20160420_Myths_and_Realities_of_CubeSat_Risk.show.pdf