Abstract:
Knowing the collision risk of satellites operating in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is of great importance and interest to the global space community and operators of LEO spacecraft. New methods for developing a representative catalogue and for determining typical encounter rates for small spacecraft sizes offer ways to address the technical complexities of assessing collision risk. In this paper, we employ these new methods to estimate LEO collision risk for both current, planned and hypothetical constellations. These results indicate that collision risk in LEO is fairly high when examined in the context of a satellite constellation’s lifetime.
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Oltrogge, D.L. and Alfano, S., “Collision Risk in Low Earth Orbit,” IAC-16, A6,2,1,x32763, 67th International Astronautical Congress, Guadalajara, Mexico, 26-30 September 2016, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220424T101433/Paper/Oltrogge_Alfano_IAC-16,A6,2,1,x32763_LEO_COLLISION_RISK_FINAL.pdf.
