Challenges to Accurate LEO Satellite Prediction

Challenges to Accurate LEO Satellite Prediction - Presentation
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Id: 384

Type: Presentation

Published: 03/20/2025

Event: IACAS-64 Conference


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Abstract:

Accurate propagation of Low Earth Orbiting satellites is increasingly important for conjunction analyses as the region becomes more densely populated. Standard perturbation force models are successfully used for Orbit Determination to produce accurate epoch states. But what happens as these states are predicted into the future? The uncertainty increases rapidly, somewhat independent of the accuracy of the initial state. I review the dominant perturbing forces and focus on gravity and atmospheric drag as sources of the increased uncertainty in prediction.

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Citation:

Vallado, David. 2025. March 20. Challenges to Accurate LEO Satellite Prediction. Keynote presentation at the IACAS-64 Conference. Haifa, Israel.

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