Abstract:
The evolution of the debris field generated by an on-orbit explosion or collision fragmentation event is of critical concern to space operators and SSA organizations. The debris field can be initially generated by combining one of the available breakup models containing imparted velocity and fragment size probability density functions (PDFs), with efficient lambert solutions and 3D time-based PDF mappings. Previous relevant techniques for simulating this are examined. Existing two-dimensional debris field evolution and dynamics approaches are extended to three dimensions. To do this, the full set of possible lambert solutions is employed, to include multi-revolution solutions. The resulting PDF distributions are dynamically shown in three dimensions for various sample collision and explosion cases, in several important orbital classes. Finally, we evaluate the active satellites potentially put at risk by the evolving debris cloud.
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Vallado, D.A. and Oltrogge, D.L., “Fragmentation Event Debris Field Evolution Using 3d Volumetric Risk Assessment,” ESA Conference on Space Debris, ESDC-17-738, Darmstadt, Germany, 24 April 2017, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220424T103010/Paper/20170424_Frag_Event_Debris_Field_Evolution_Using_3D_Volumetric_Final_ESDC-17-738.pdf
