Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze the Russian ASAT intercept of the COSMOS 1408 spacecraft that occurred 15 November 2021, using published NOTAMs and public orbit and spacecraft data to infer the likely ASAT engagement scenario employed. That scenario is then used to infer imparted velocity directions and magnitudes. Two independent breakup models (one discrete “representative scenario” model and one continuum model) were then employed to determine where generated COSMOS 1408 debris fragments were likely to go, what satellites would be affected, and how operator workloads would be changed because of the test. Results indicate that debris fragments do pose a collision risk to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft, especially spacecraft in sun-synchronous orbits (e.g., Earth-observing), very large spacecraft (notably, the International Space Station or ISS), and large constellations (for example, the Starlink constellation). The corresponding increases in close approach and collision warnings, accompanied by increases in avoidance maneuvers required for flight safety, will place a burden on operators for approximately 1.5 years after the intercept occurred.
Keywords:
Click a keyword to filter the list of related assets below.
Oltrogge, D.L., Alfano, S., Vallado, D.A., Zimmer, P., Hall, R.H., Wilson, J., Siegers, M., and Aurich, J., “Russian ASAT Debris Cloud Evolution and Risk,” 3rd IAA Conference on Space Situational Awareness, Madrid Spain, 4-6 Apr 2022, accessible at https://comspoc.com/Resources/Content/Private/C-20220423T080219/Paper/20220403_Russian_ASAT_Impact_to_Operators_FINAL.pdf.
